Dreaming of Simplicity

Russia's relations with the west plunged to their most critical point in a generation today when the Kremlin built on its military rout of Georgia by recognising the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

Declaring that if his decision meant a new cold war, then so be it, President Dmitri Medvedev signed a decree conferring Russian recognition on Georgia's two secessionist regions. The move flouted UN Security Council resolutions and dismissed western insistence during the crisis of the past three weeks on respecting Georgia's territorial integrity and international borders.

Tonight, Medvedev accused Washington of shipping arms to Georgia under the guise of humanitarian aid.

Read the Full Article Here.

British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs David Miliband is in the Georgian capital Tbilisi where he has just given a joint press conference with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Miliband said that he was in Tbilisi for three reasons, so that the "Georgian people... know that British people and British government stand in solidarity with them"; to report and consult with Saakashvili on the developments from the NATO meeting in Brussels today, and because of "real concern about the humanitarian situation".

At the press confernce Saakasvili said that "the only thing that I can promise to the Russians, is that we will not fall, Georgia will not fall". He also thanked Miliband for "your pledges to rebuild my country".

Saakashvili also said that Senator Joe Biden, head of the delegation sent to the area by Democartic US Presidential candidate Barack Obama, had came up with a "$1-billion plan, for Georgian economic reconstruction".

NATO members today said that they could not continue with "business as usual" with Russia and again called for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory.

Following talks in Brussels at an emergency meeting of NATO foreign ministers called by Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that "The future of our relations with Russia will depend on the concrete actions Russia will take to abide by the words of President Dmitry Medvedev [regarding the peace plan], which is not happening at the moment".

In response, Russian officials accused NATO of trying to save a criminal regime. In the last hour or so, Russia's Ambassador to NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance) has warned the West against allowing Georgia to enter the Alliance. "I would like to ask you whether you are ready to risk your prosperity, to risk your lives and the lives of your children just for (Georgian President Mikheil) Saakashvili," Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin said.

Rogozin proceeded, "My proposal is to accept Hitler in NATO, then Saddam, after that, Saakashvili. That's the order that I propose for NATO accession".

The Full Statement Issued by NATO is here.


Picture: NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer speaking at a press conference earlier today; courtesy NATO

NATO is to meet for an emergency summit to discuss the situation in Georgia. Despite Russia signing the ceasefire and withdrawal agreement, Russian forces are still believed to be in non-disputed Georgian territories. Also, AFP has reported that the Russian military are moving missile launchers into the area. Both the Russian military and the Kremlin deny the report. A BBC News correspondent in Georgia saw a Russian convoy of around 60 men on vehicles heading deeper into Georgia yesterday.

According to CNN, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev hit out at Georgia once again yesterday. Speaking near the Russian-Georgian border, Medvedev said "The world has seen that even today, there are political morons who are ready to kill innocent and defenceless people in order to satisfy their self-serving interests, while compensating for their own inability to resolve complicated issues by using the most terrible solution -- by exterminating an entire people. I think that there should be no mercy for that. We will do our best not to let this crime go unpunished."

In response, Georgia's Ambassador to Washington said that the Russian invasion had been long in the making "You just don't move more than 1,200 tanks and 15,000 soldiers into a country within 12 hours without previous planning," Ambassador Vasil Sikharulidze said.

Speaking on the eve of the meeting of NATO's foreign ministers in Brussels, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the West must deprive Russia of any strategic victory from its assault on Georgia. The meeting was called by Secretary Rice who, on entry to Belgium, said "We are going to send the message that we are not going to allow Russia to draw a new line at those states that are not yet integrated into the transatlantic structures like Georgia and Ukraine".

It is thought that there will be two camps in the NATO talks. In one camp, Britain, Canada, the US with most Eastern European member states will seek a tough stance on Russia. The other camp, consisting of most of Western Europe, led by France and Germany, is expected to be more cautious of harming ties with Moscow.

Picture: [Demonstration in Tbilisi for a free and undivided Georgia. The sign says "Imperial Appetites"] by Håkan Henriksson - http://commons.wikimedia.org

Europe is stepping up the verbal offensive against Russia. In an article in Le Figaro, French President Nicholas Sarkozy says that:

This withdrawal must be carried out without delay. This point is not negotiable in my eyes. It must involve all Russian forces that entered in[to] Georgia since August 7. If this clause of the cease-fire [is] not applied quickly and completely, I would be obliged to convene an extraordinary European Council to decide on the consequences to be drawn.

Previously, Sarkozy had been accused of taking a somewhat soft stance towards Russia. It follows Angela Merkel's statement that Georgia should be able to enter into NATO. France and Germany were two of the NATO members that were rather cool towards the idea of giving Georgia a blueprint for NATO membership.

The tone in Sarkozy's article, however, is clear:

We must also determine whether the intervention of Russia against its neighbour Georgia was a response brutal and excessive, in this unique case, or if it opens a new hardening of Moscow vis-à-vis its neighbours and the international community [as a] whole.

The use of such stong words will no doubt anger Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. Whilst talking about Europe's role in the crisis, Sarkozy says something that no other leader has dared to say, he talks of a new cold war:

That is what [Europe has] done by making every effort to reduce this new conflict whose consequences could be catastrophic if it proved to be harbinger of a new cold war.

If Russian troops do not begin withdrawing today, there could be a lot of diplomatic trouble.

The Full Article is here.

































Images: Nicholas Sarkozy by א (Aleph), http://commons.wikimedia.org; Dmitry Mevedev by Zscout370, http//commons.wikimedia.org; Georgia map from BBC News

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that Georgia should be able to join NATO (dodgy translation) if it so desired. Speaking after meeting with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in Tbilisi, Merkel said that "Georgia will, if it wants, and it does want to, become a member of NATO". This a change of tone from Germany who, in April, prevented NATO from offering a membership timetable to Georgia because it feared angering Russia. Russia is a major gas supplier to Europe, the European market accounts for two thirds of Russian natural-gas company Gazprom's profits. Gazprom's profits make up 25% of the Russian Federal budget.

Meanwhile, according to French President Nicholas Sarkozy, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has pledged to finally begin withdrawing Russian troops on Monday. However, it is expected that this will be a pull-back from Georgian non-contested territory, not South Ossetia. Moreover, Russia troops are expected to stay in Abkhazia, a region that had been relatively stable until Russian troops moved in.

Washington, Brussels, London and Berlin are all agreed that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will not be allowed to be assimilated into the Russian Federation. It does, however, seem that Prime Minister Putin and his puppet Medvedev may disagree.